Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Slovenia (70%) · Slovenia at 74¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Switzerland27¢Slovenia73¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Slovenia

Consensus Traders

Slovenia 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$37.48

Smart Money Entry

70.2¢ → 73.5¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralSlovenia at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Slovenia

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Switzerland27%

Slovenia74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Slovenia7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,949

Combined PnL+$40.49

Switzerland3 traders

Total Value$60.36

Total Shares208

Combined PnL-$3.02

Slovenia — 70%Switzerland — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Slovenia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSwitzerland 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSlovenia 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Slovenia 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Sloveniaavg 70.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$35.54	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
rayvanmechelen	Sloveniaavg 70¢	$105.11	$106.61	+$1.5	6% 17-277 (294)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Sloveniaavg 70¢	$84	$84.2	+$0.2	56% 307-245 (552)
└ Slovenia leg	Sloveniaavg 70¢	$63	$63.9	+$0.9
└ Switzerland leg	Switzerlandavg 30¢	$21	$20.3	-$0.7
0xheavy888<$100	Sloveniaavg 70.7¢	$60.56	$60.8	+$0.24	53% 388-339 (727)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Sloveniaavg 70¢	$53.2	$53.96	+$0.76	47% 189-212 (401)
38 38791873984189	Sloveniaavg 70¢	$104.88	$42.81	+$1.93	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Switzerlandavg 28¢	$30.2	$27.4	-$1.47	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Switzerlandavg 29¢	$16.53	$16.53	-$0	35% 735-1379 (2114)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Switzerlandavg 29¢	$17.98	$16.43	-$1.55	52% 471-427 (898)
GH ghorrock<$100	Sloveniaavg 70¢	$51.38	$11.04	+$0.62	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
DV dv-pm<$100	Sloveniaavg 73¢	$3.65	$3.55	-$0.1	40% 17-26 (43)

GoalLineGhost

Slovenia

Invested

$1,098.85

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$35.54

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

rayvanmechelen

Slovenia

Invested

$105.11

Value

$106.61

PnL

+$1.5

Record

17-277 (294)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Slovenia

Invested

$84

Value

$84.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

Both legs:

Slovenia$6370¢+$0.9

Switzerland$2130¢-$0.7

0xheavy888<$100

Slovenia

Invested

$60.56

Value

$60.8

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Slovenia

Invested

$53.2

Value

$53.96

PnL

+$0.76

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

38791873984189

Slovenia

Invested

$104.88

Value

$42.81

PnL

+$1.93

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

suntoriCTR<$100

Switzerland

Invested

$30.2

Value

$27.4

PnL

-$1.47

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

LimousinCTR<$100

Switzerland

Invested

$16.53

Value

$16.53

PnL

-$0

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Switzerland

Invested

$17.98

Value

$16.43

PnL

-$1.55

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

ghorrock<$100

Slovenia

Invested

$51.38

Value

$11.04

PnL

+$0.62

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

dv-pm<$100

Slovenia

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$0.1

Record

40%

17-26 (43)

Research grade

NeutralSlovenia at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Slovenia

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Slovenia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSwitzerland 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSlovenia 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Slovenia 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Slovenia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.