Exact Score: Slovenia 1 - 2 Switzerland?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 91¢ · $830 held · ends Nov 13

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$829.87

Combined PnL

$12.57

Smart Money Entry

89.6¢ → 90.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$715.33

Total Shares777

Combined PnL+$14.62

Yes3 traders

Total Value$114.54

Total Shares273

Combined PnL-$2.04

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 89¢	$247.42	$250.2	+$2.78	47% 191-212 (403)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 89.5¢	$178.99	$179.99	+$1	53% 1030-921 (1951)
NM NM-P	Noavg 90¢	$122.93	$123.86	+$0.93	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 91¢	$99.4	$98.85	-$0.55	35% 750-1386 (2136)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$349	$98.01	-$0.99	75% 112-37 (149)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.7¢	$47.76	$47.94	+$0.18	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 90¢	$49.22	$14.49	+$10.27	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.8¢	$11.42	$10.03	-$1.39	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$6.16	$6.5	+$0.34	33% 251-499 (750)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$247.42

Value

$250.2

PnL

+$2.78

Record

47%

191-212 (403)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$178.99

Value

$179.99

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

NM-P

Invested

$122.93

Value

$123.86

PnL

+$0.93

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$99.4

Value

$98.85

PnL

-$0.55

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Yes

Invested

$349

Value

$98.01

PnL

-$0.99

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$47.76

Value

$47.94

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$49.22

Value

$14.49

PnL

+$10.27

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.42

Value

$10.03

PnL

-$1.39

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.16

Value

$6.5

PnL

+$0.34

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.