Exact Score: Serbia 3 - 4 Germany?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$28.88

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.7¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,797

Combined PnL-$0.34

Yes5 traders

Total Value$7.79

Total Shares2,897

Combined PnL-$28.53

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Noavg 99.6¢	$889.33	$889.7	+$0.37	35% 736-1380 (2116)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 99.7¢	$531.49	$531.29	-$0.2	36% 763-1361 (2124)
VE Venusian	Noavg 99.8¢	$332.69	$332.23	-$0.46	34% 736-1405 (2141)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$37.52	$37.46	-$0.06	35% 750-1386 (2136)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$4.17	$4.67	+$0.5	53% 1030-921 (1951)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$2	-$25.03	21% 16-61 (77)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.73	$0.87	-$0.87	48% 677-745 (1422)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$3.38	$0.25	-$3.13	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.02	$0.01	-$0.01	53% 1374-1218 (2592)

Limousin

Invested

$889.33

Value

$889.7

PnL

+$0.37

Record

35%

736-1380 (2116)

MadridTime

Invested

$531.49

Value

$531.29

PnL

-$0.2

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

Venusian

Invested

$332.69

Value

$332.23

PnL

-$0.46

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$37.52

Value

$37.46

PnL

-$0.06

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.17

Value

$4.67

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

PnL

-$25.03

Record

21%

16-61 (77)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.73

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$0.87

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.38

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$3.13

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.