Exact Score: Serbia 1 - 2 Germany?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 91¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$83.32

Smart Money Entry

86.8¢ → 91¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,329

Combined PnL+$11.78

Yes3 traders

Total Value$110.03

Total Shares1,111

Combined PnL+$71.53

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 90¢	$403.2	$403.2	+$0	48% 677-745 (1422)
GC GC-P	Noavg 90¢	$320.76	$324.26	+$3.5	33% 251-499 (750)
NM NM-P	Noavg 90¢	$315	$318.5	+$3.5	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Noavg 50¢	$192	$106	+$0	75% 112-37 (149)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$100	+$72.97	21% 16-61 (77)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 89¢	$35.93	$36.34	+$0.4	47% 189-212 (401)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 90¢	$27	$27	+$0	36% 761-1361 (2122)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$15.59	$9.84	-$1.56	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 90¢	$46.62	$6	+$4.38	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$0.63	$0.19	+$0.12	53% 1326-1186 (2512)

SnakeBall

Invested

$403.2

Value

$403.2

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

GC-P

Invested

$320.76

Value

$324.26

PnL

+$3.5

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

NM-P

Invested

$315

Value

$318.5

PnL

+$3.5

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Invested

$192

Value

$106

PnL

+$0

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$100

PnL

+$72.97

Record

21%

16-61 (77)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$35.93

Value

$36.34

PnL

+$0.4

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$27

Value

$27

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.59

Value

$9.84

PnL

-$1.56

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$46.62

Value

PnL

+$4.38

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.63

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.