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2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 92¢ · $349 held · ends Nov 13

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$349.16

Combined PnL

$67.57

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 92¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$122.85

Total Shares133

Combined PnL+$4.47

Yes6 traders

Total Value$140.54

Total Shares1,568

Combined PnL+$63.1

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-50 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-P	Noavg 91¢	$116.02	$116.71	+$0.69	33% 251-499 (750)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$90	+$62.97	21% 16-61 (77)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100	Noavg 91¢	$80.79	$85.77	+$4.98	47% 189-212 (401)
└ No leg	Noavg 91¢	$59.05	$59.37	+$0.32
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7¢	$21.74	$26.4	+$4.66
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$34.63	$34.63	-$0	36% 761-1361 (2122)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$6.7	$6.7	-$0	34% 735-1404 (2139)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 91¢	$57.36	$6.14	+$3.78	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$4.84	$4.3	-$0.54	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$3.39	$3.81	+$0.42	36% 326-587 (913)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$0.85	$1.09	+$0.24	53% 1326-1186 (2512)

GC-P

Invested

$116.02

Value

$116.71

PnL

+$0.69

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$90

PnL

+$62.97

Record

21%

16-61 (77)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100

Invested

$80.79

Value

$85.77

PnL

+$4.98

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

Both legs:

Invested

$34.63

Value

$34.63

PnL

-$0

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.7

Value

$6.7

PnL

-$0

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$57.36

Value

$6.14

PnL

+$3.78

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.84

Value

$4.3

PnL

-$0.54

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.39

Value

$3.81

PnL

+$0.42

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$1.09

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-50 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.