Scotland vs. North Macedonia: O/U 3.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 63¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 13

Over38¢Under62¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$2.9

Smart Money Entry

65.5¢ → 62.5¢

-5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,023

Combined PnL-$122.54

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,150

Combined PnL+$125.44

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 66.9¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$115.43	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 33¢	$601.59	$674.51	+$72.92	52% 471-427 (898)
KY Kyn008CTR	Overavg 33¢	$418.15	$468.83	+$50.68	40% 137-202 (339)
NM NM-P	Underavg 61¢	$259.25	$265.63	+$6.38	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-P	Underavg 61¢	$259.25	$265.63	+$6.38	33% 251-499 (750)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 67¢	$244.72	$226.46	-$18.26	47% 189-212 (401)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 63.9¢	$63.88	$62.5	-$1.38	56% 307-245 (552)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 62¢	$34.26	$34.54	+$0.28	53% 388-339 (727)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 37.4¢	$127.9	$25.43	+$1.83	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 63.9¢	$37.77	$1.27	-$0.49	53% 1326-1186 (2512)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,797.64

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$115.43

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$601.59

Value

$674.51

PnL

+$72.92

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

Kyn008CTR

Over

Invested

$418.15

Value

$468.83

PnL

+$50.68

Record

40%

137-202 (339)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$259.25

Value

$265.63

PnL

+$6.38

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$259.25

Value

$265.63

PnL

+$6.38

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$244.72

Value

$226.46

PnL

-$18.26

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$63.88

Value

$62.5

PnL

-$1.38

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$34.26

Value

$34.54

PnL

+$0.28

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$127.9

Value

$25.43

PnL

+$1.83

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$37.77

Value

$1.27

PnL

-$0.49

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.