Will Romania vs. Poland end in a draw?
5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 79¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 45%
$2.1K
$14.75
76.4¢ → 78.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 77¢ | $770 | $780 | +$10 | 53% 7137-6246 (13383) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 76¢ | $760 | $770 | +$10 | 37% 367-618 (985) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 23¢ | $160.09 | $160.09 | -$0 | 37% 1002-1720 (2722) |
VE VenusianCTR | Yesavg 22.7¢ | $104.14 | $98.72 | -$5.42 | 37% 991-1715 (2706) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $97.15 | $95.15 | -$1.99 | 53% 2162-1905 (4067) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $81.94 | $82.96 | +$1.02 | 59% 3775-2600 (6375) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $67.42 | $67.42 | -$0 | 38% 1014-1686 (2700) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 75.5¢ | $63.42 | $63.84 | +$0.42 | 55% 499-401 (900) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $18.99 | $19.46 | +$0.47 | 53% 1811-1610 (3421) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $5.47 | $5.72 | +$0.25 | 31% 355-790 (1145) |
KY Kyn008CTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $0.72 | $0.72 | -$0 | 41% 145-210 (355) |
Invested
$770
Value
$780
PnL
+$10
Record
53%
7137-6246 (13383)
Invested
$760
Value
$770
PnL
+$10
Record
37%
367-618 (985)
Invested
$160.09
Value
$160.09
PnL
-$0
Record
37%
1002-1720 (2722)
Invested
$104.14
Value
$98.72
PnL
-$5.42
Record
37%
991-1715 (2706)
Invested
$97.15
Value
$95.15
PnL
-$1.99
Record
53%
2162-1905 (4067)
Invested
$81.94
Value
$82.96
PnL
+$1.02
Record
59%
3775-2600 (6375)
Invested
$67.42
Value
$67.42
PnL
-$0
Record
38%
1014-1686 (2700)
Invested
$63.42
Value
$63.84
PnL
+$0.42
Record
55%
499-401 (900)
Invested
$18.99
Value
$19.46
PnL
+$0.47
Record
53%
1811-1610 (3421)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$5.47
Value
$5.72
PnL
+$0.25
Record
31%
355-790 (1145)
Invested
$0.72
Value
$0.72
PnL
-$0
Record
41%
145-210 (355)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.