Spread: Wales (-1.5)

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Norway (38%) · Norway at 97¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

Wales3¢Norway97¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Norway

Consensus Traders

Norway 38%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$498.12

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 97¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNorway at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Norway

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wales3%

Norway97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Norway5 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares6,008

Combined PnL+$16.02

Wales8 traders

Total Value$830.15

Total Shares13,015

Combined PnL+$482.1

Norway — 38%Wales — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU BunCaCham	Norwayavg 97.3¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$3.33	92% 22-2 (24)
P1 P1kaso	Norwayavg 97.1¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$2.5	18% 25-115 (140)
LM LmmmxYyqXz5221uCTR	Walesavg 2.2¢	$22.11	$487.49	+$465.38	0% 0-20 (20)
nigiri99CTR	Walesavg 2.7¢	$188.47	$205.94	+$17.46	51% 568-535 (1103)
38 38791873984189	Norwayavg 87.6¢	$151.07	$132.03	+$19.02	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Walesavg 2.9¢	$83.02	$80.91	-$2.11	45% 260-317 (577)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Walesavg 2.5¢	$42.09	$42.94	+$0.84	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
GH ghorrock<$100	Norwayavg 97.4¢	$33.78	$33.74	-$0.05	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Walesavg 2.6¢	$3.94	$4.32	+$0.38	37% 970-1635 (2605)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Walesavg 2.8¢	$3.54	$3.67	+$0.13	36% 933-1644 (2577)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Walesavg 2.7¢	$2.55	$2.74	+$0.19	36% 948-1669 (2617)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Norwayavg 94¢	$4.69	$2.57	-$2.12	50% 153-153 (306)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Walesavg 2.7¢	$2.31	$2.14	-$0.17	37% 960-1662 (2622)

BunCaCham

Norway

Invested

$3,242.99

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$3.33

Record

92%

22-2 (24)

P1kaso

Norway

Invested

$2,427.5

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$2.5

Record

18%

25-115 (140)

LmmmxYyqXz5221uCTR

Wales

Invested

$22.11

Value

$487.49

PnL

+$465.38

Record

0-20 (20)

nigiri99CTR

Wales

Invested

$188.47

Value

$205.94

PnL

+$17.46

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

38791873984189

Norway

Invested

$151.07

Value

$132.03

PnL

+$19.02

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Wales

Invested

$83.02

Value

$80.91

PnL

-$2.11

Record

45%

260-317 (577)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Wales

Invested

$42.09

Value

$42.94

PnL

+$0.84

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

ghorrock<$100

Norway

Invested

$33.78

Value

$33.74

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Wales

Invested

$3.94

Value

$4.32

PnL

+$0.38

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

LimousinCTR<$100

Wales

Invested

$3.54

Value

$3.67

PnL

+$0.13

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

VenusianCTR<$100

Wales

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.74

PnL

+$0.19

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Norway

Invested

$4.69

Value

$2.57

PnL

-$2.12

Record

50%

153-153 (306)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Wales

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.14

PnL

-$0.17

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

Research grade

NeutralNorway at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Norway

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Norway wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.