Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Greece?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 93¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$1.9K
$11.94
92.7¢ → 92.5¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-P | Noavg 93¢ | $465 | $460 | -$5 | 59% 3648-2489 (6137) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 93¢ | $465 | $460 | -$5 | 33% 251-499 (750) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382 | Noavg 92¢ | $310.49 | $312.29 | +$1.8 | 47% 189-212 (401) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 93¢ | $253.76 | $251.03 | -$2.73 | 48% 677-745 (1422) |
SU suntoriCTR | Yesavg 7¢ | $193.79 | $207.19 | +$13.4 | 46% 2084-2445 (4529) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 92¢ | $138 | $138 | +$0 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $51.5 | $15.8 | +$9.3 | 48% 2786-3040 (5826) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $5.58 | $5.75 | +$0.17 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
Invested
$465
Value
$460
PnL
-$5
Record
59%
3648-2489 (6137)
Invested
$465
Value
$460
PnL
-$5
Record
33%
251-499 (750)
Invested
$310.49
Value
$312.29
PnL
+$1.8
Record
47%
189-212 (401)
Invested
$253.76
Value
$251.03
PnL
-$2.73
Record
48%
677-745 (1422)
Invested
$193.79
Value
$207.19
PnL
+$13.4
Record
46%
2084-2445 (4529)
VeryLucky888Invested
$138
Value
$138
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
Invested
$51.5
Value
$15.8
PnL
+$9.3
Record
48%
2786-3040 (5826)
Invested
$5.58
Value
$5.75
PnL
+$0.17
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.