Netherlands vs. Greece: O/U 9.5 Total Corners

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 52¢ · $976 held · ends Nov 13

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$975.97

Combined PnL

-$1.39

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 51.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$668.4

Total Shares1,331

Combined PnL+$4.51

Under2 traders

Total Value$307.55

Total Shares623

Combined PnL-$5.9

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO CornerGaming	Overavg 49.1¢	$280.99	$280.69	-$0.3	— 0-16 (16)
0X 0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186CTR	Underavg 50¢	$250	$245	-$5	— 6-6 (12)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 50¢	$224.65	$229.14	+$4.49	35% 750-1386 (2136)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 49¢	$96.08	$97.06	+$0.98	48% 677-745 (1422)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 51.7¢	$63.45	$62.55	-$0.9	56% 309-246 (555)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 50¢	$49.78	$49.28	-$0.5	34% 736-1405 (2141)
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 50¢	$7.41	$7.34	-$0.07	36% 763-1361 (2124)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100	Overavg 52¢	$4.99	$4.89	-$0.1	20% 47-184 (231)

CornerGaming

Over

Invested

$280.99

Value

$280.69

PnL

-$0.3

Record

—

0-16 (16)

0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186CTR

Under

Invested

$250

Value

$245

PnL

-$5

Record

—

6-6 (12)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$224.65

Value

$229.14

PnL

+$4.49

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$96.08

Value

$97.06

PnL

+$0.98

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$63.45

Value

$62.55

PnL

-$0.9

Record

56%

309-246 (555)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$49.78

Value

$49.28

PnL

-$0.5

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$7.41

Value

$7.34

PnL

-$0.07

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100

Over

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.89

PnL

-$0.1

Record

20%

47-184 (231)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.