Northern Ireland vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5

14 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 66¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 14

Over35¢Under65¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

Total Value

$15.7K

Combined PnL

$110.19

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 65.5¢

+2% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over35%

Under66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under14 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares22,567

Combined PnL+$39.55

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,365

Combined PnL+$70.64

Under — 78%Over — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Underavg 64¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$30.06	54% 1417-1228 (2645)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 64¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$27.58	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 65¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$15.34	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
GC GC-P	Underavg 64¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	37% 367-618 (985)
NM NM-P	Underavg 64¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	59% 3775-2600 (6375)
BI biying99999	Underavg 64¢	$899.2	$899.2	+$0	36% 114-200 (314)
KY Kyn008CTR	Overavg 33¢	$646.14	$704.87	+$58.74	41% 145-210 (355)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 64¢	$512	$516	+$4	25% 350-1027 (1377)
0xheavy888	Underavg 65.5¢	$524	$512	-$12	54% 503-422 (925)
TO tomb2456	Underavg 64¢	$491.2	$495.04	+$3.84	53% 37-33 (70)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 34¢	$271	$282.96	+$11.96	36% 975-1701 (2676)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 64.3¢	$340.69	$249.62	+$1.88	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Overavg 36¢	$215.46	$215.46	+$0	61% 1043-661 (1704)
nigiri99<$100	Underavg 65¢	$74.75	$74.18	-$0.58	51% 568-535 (1103)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 64¢	$70.4	$70.95	+$0.55	48% 301-330 (631)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 64¢	$67.76	$68.29	+$0.53	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 66¢	$31.68	$30.72	-$0.96	55% 499-401 (900)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$3.99	$3.93	-$0.06	21% 60-223 (283)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$3,847.09

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$30.06

Record

54%

1417-1228 (2645)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$3,551.66

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$27.58

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$1,994.43

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$15.34

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$1,088

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

367-618 (985)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$1,088

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3775-2600 (6375)

biying99999

Under

Invested

$899.2

Value

$899.2

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

114-200 (314)

Kyn008CTR

Over

Invested

$646.14

Value

$704.87

PnL

+$58.74

Record

41%

145-210 (355)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$512

Value

$516

PnL

+$4

Record

25%

350-1027 (1377)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$524

Value

$512

PnL

-$12

Record

54%

503-422 (925)

tomb2456

Under

Invested

$491.2

Value

$495.04

PnL

+$3.84

Record

53%

37-33 (70)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$271

Value

$282.96

PnL

+$11.96

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$340.69

Value

$249.62

PnL

+$1.88

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

darkumbreon88CTR

Over

Invested

$215.46

Value

$215.46

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

1043-661 (1704)

nigiri99<$100

Under

Invested

$74.75

Value

$74.18

PnL

-$0.58

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$70.4

Value

$70.95

PnL

+$0.55

Record

48%

301-330 (631)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$67.76

Value

$68.29

PnL

+$0.53

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$31.68

Value

$30.72

PnL

-$0.96

Record

55%

499-401 (900)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.99

Value

$3.93

PnL

-$0.06

Record

21%

60-223 (283)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.