Kosovo vs. Israel: O/U 2.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 52¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$48.27

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares10,624

Combined PnL+$55.4

Under6 traders

Total Value$890.49

Total Shares1,798

Combined PnL-$7.13

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-62 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI viper0310	Overavg 51¢	$5.3K	$5.4K	+$52.22	— 5-2 (7)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 49¢	$479.43	$474.54	-$4.89	53% 2055-1798 (3853)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 49¢	$196	$194	-$2	54% 489-415 (904)
KY Kyn008<$100	Overavg 50¢	$85.54	$88.11	+$2.57	40% 139-209 (348)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$67.62	$66.93	-$0.69	48% 285-304 (589)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$63.41	$62.76	-$0.65	36% 942-1663 (2605)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$46.85	$46.97	+$0.13	55% 447-361 (808)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 49¢	$107.31	$45.28	+$0.97	48% 3192-3494 (6686)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 49.5¢	$33.25	$4.79	+$0.62	52% 1696-1538 (3234)

viper0310

Over

Invested

$5,326.27

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$52.22

Record

—

5-2 (7)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$479.43

Value

$474.54

PnL

-$4.89

Record

53%

2055-1798 (3853)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$196

Value

$194

PnL

-$2

Record

54%

489-415 (904)

Kyn008<$100

Over

Invested

$85.54

Value

$88.11

PnL

+$2.57

Record

40%

139-209 (348)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.62

Value

$66.93

PnL

-$0.69

Record

48%

285-304 (589)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$63.41

Value

$62.76

PnL

-$0.65

Record

36%

942-1663 (2605)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$46.85

Value

$46.97

PnL

+$0.13

Record

55%

447-361 (808)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$107.31

Value

$45.28

PnL

+$0.97

Record

48%

3192-3494 (6686)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$33.25

Value

$4.79

PnL

+$0.62

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-62 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.