Exact Score: Italy 3 - 1 France?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $767 held · ended Nov 12

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$767.28

Combined PnL

-$5.1

Smart Money Entry

97.3¢ → 98.2¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$692.72

Total Shares707

Combined PnL+$2.17

Yes5 traders

Total Value$74.55

Total Shares2,804

Combined PnL-$7.28

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 97.2¢	$511.53	$513.94	+$2.41	46% 443-515 (958)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$66.38	$66.68	+$0.31	59% 3535-2417 (5952)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$54.05	$56	+$1.95	— 2-10 (12)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$40.65	$40.65	+$0	34% 564-1116 (1680)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$39.08	$39.12	+$0.04	33% 556-1141 (1697)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$33.68	$32.33	-$0.58	44% 165-210 (375)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$131.1	$11.74	-$1.27	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$13.49	$5.34	-$8.15	52% 353-330 (683)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$1.2	$1.4	+$0.2	33% 539-1116 (1655)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.08	$0.08	+$0	54% 997-856 (1853)

SnakeBall

Invested

$511.53

Value

$513.94

PnL

+$2.41

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$66.38

Value

$66.68

PnL

+$0.31

Record

59%

3535-2417 (5952)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.05

Value

$56

PnL

+$1.95

Record

—

2-10 (12)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$40.65

Value

$40.65

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

564-1116 (1680)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$39.08

Value

$39.12

PnL

+$0.04

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

Forecastication2<$100

Invested

$33.68

Value

$32.33

PnL

-$0.58

Record

44%

165-210 (375)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$131.1

Value

$11.74

PnL

-$1.27

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.49

Value

$5.34

PnL

-$8.15

Record

52%

353-330 (683)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.2

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.