Exact Score: Italy 3 - 0 France?
3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 99¢ · $943 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 30%
$942.61
-$33.26
98.6¢ → 99.4¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Noavg 98.6¢ | $502.26 | $461.43 | +$3.2 | 34% 564-1116 (1680) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 98.6¢ | $388.64 | $389.68 | +$1.04 | 32% 542-1134 (1676) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $44.04 | $44.3 | +$0.27 | 56% 4503-3474 (7977) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $54.05 | $24 | -$30.05 | — 2-10 (12) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $13.66 | $12.19 | -$1.46 | 46% 443-515 (958) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $10.38 | $4.61 | -$5.77 | 48% 2255-2437 (4692) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $2.94 | $3.07 | +$0.12 | 59% 3535-2417 (5952) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $3.28 | $2.81 | -$0.47 | 52% 353-330 (683) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $0.39 | $0.4 | +$0.02 | 26% 153-428 (581) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $0.27 | $0.12 | -$0.15 | 54% 997-856 (1853) |
Invested
$502.26
Value
$461.43
PnL
+$3.2
Record
34%
564-1116 (1680)
Invested
$388.64
Value
$389.68
PnL
+$1.04
Record
32%
542-1134 (1676)
RN1<$100Invested
$44.04
Value
$44.3
PnL
+$0.27
Record
56%
4503-3474 (7977)
Invested
$54.05
Value
$24
PnL
-$30.05
Record
—
2-10 (12)
Invested
$13.66
Value
$12.19
PnL
-$1.46
Record
46%
443-515 (958)
Invested
$10.38
Value
$4.61
PnL
-$5.77
Record
48%
2255-2437 (4692)
Invested
$2.94
Value
$3.07
PnL
+$0.12
Record
59%
3535-2417 (5952)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$3.28
Value
$2.81
PnL
-$0.47
Record
52%
353-330 (683)
Invested
$0.39
Value
$0.4
PnL
+$0.02
Record
26%
153-428 (581)
Invested
$0.27
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$0.15
Record
54%
997-856 (1853)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.