Exact Score: Italy 2 - 4 France?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 98¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$29.36

Smart Money Entry

98.5¢ → 98.4¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,800

Combined PnL+$0.4

Yes3 traders

Total Value$31.22

Total Shares2,402

Combined PnL-$29.76

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 98.3¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$5.11	46% 443-515 (958)
VE Venusian	Noavg 98.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$3.51	32% 542-1133 (1675)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$54.05	$26	-$28.05	— 2-10 (12)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$19.72	$19.68	-$0.04	33% 556-1140 (1696)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$16.09	$16.15	+$0.07	36% 209-370 (579)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 98.3¢	$101.54	$5.32	-$1.22	48% 2245-2429 (4674)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$6.66	$5.09	-$1.57	47% 1656-1884 (3540)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.27	$0.13	-$0.14	54% 997-856 (1853)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,575.52

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$5.11

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

Venusian

Invested

$1,155.9

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$3.51

Record

32%

542-1133 (1675)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.05

Value

$26

PnL

-$28.05

Record

—

2-10 (12)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$19.72

Value

$19.68

PnL

-$0.04

Record

33%

556-1140 (1696)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$16.09

Value

$16.15

PnL

+$0.07

Record

36%

209-370 (579)

38791873984189

Invested

$101.54

Value

$5.32

PnL

-$1.22

Record

48%

2245-2429 (4674)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.66

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$1.57

Record

47%

1656-1884 (3540)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.14

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.