Exact Score: Italy 2 - 3 France?
7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 97¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 58%
$2.6K
-$34.56
96.2¢ → 96.7¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+46 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Noavg 96.4¢ | $714.32 | $714.32 | +$0 | 33% 556-1141 (1697) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 96.4¢ | $810.72 | $708.54 | -$102.18 | 34% 564-1116 (1680) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 95.8¢ | $253.41 | $254.73 | +$1.32 | 26% 153-428 (581) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 96.4¢ | $255.57 | $253.71 | -$1.86 | 32% 542-1134 (1676) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 95.8¢ | $239.46 | $240.71 | +$1.25 | 59% 3535-2417 (5952) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95.6¢ | $217.27 | $218.41 | +$1.14 | 46% 443-515 (958) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $64.8 | $66.6 | +$1.8 | 56% 4503-3474 (7977) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 3¢ | $260.72 | $52.43 | +$41.7 | 48% 2255-2437 (4692) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $44.23 | $44.56 | +$0.33 | 54% 997-856 (1853) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $54.05 | $10.6 | +$21.95 | — 2-10 (12) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $9.52 | $9.52 | +$0 | 47% 1666-1892 (3558) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $6.08 | $6.08 | -$0 | 52% 353-330 (683) |
Invested
$714.32
Value
$714.32
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
556-1141 (1697)
Invested
$810.72
Value
$708.54
PnL
-$102.18
Record
34%
564-1116 (1680)
Invested
$253.41
Value
$254.73
PnL
+$1.32
Record
26%
153-428 (581)
Invested
$255.57
Value
$253.71
PnL
-$1.86
Record
32%
542-1134 (1676)
Invested
$239.46
Value
$240.71
PnL
+$1.25
Record
59%
3535-2417 (5952)
Invested
$217.27
Value
$218.41
PnL
+$1.14
Record
46%
443-515 (958)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$64.8
Value
$66.6
PnL
+$1.8
Record
56%
4503-3474 (7977)
Invested
$260.72
Value
$52.43
PnL
+$41.7
Record
48%
2255-2437 (4692)
Invested
$44.23
Value
$44.56
PnL
+$0.33
Record
54%
997-856 (1853)
Invested
$54.05
Value
$10.6
PnL
+$21.95
Record
—
2-10 (12)
Invested
$9.52
Value
$9.52
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
1666-1892 (3558)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$6.08
Value
$6.08
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
353-330 (683)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.