Exact Score: Italy 1 - 2 France?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$2.1K
$169.88
89.8¢ → 89.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-P | Noavg 90¢ | $765 | $760.75 | -$4.25 | 26% 153-428 (581) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 90¢ | $699.21 | $695.33 | -$3.88 | 59% 3535-2417 (5952) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382 | Noavg 89¢ | $385.37 | $387.54 | +$2.17 | 40% 80-118 (198) |
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $54.05 | $170 | +$145.95 | — 2-10 (12) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $40.68 | $40.45 | -$0.23 | 46% 443-515 (958) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $100.38 | $34.82 | +$29.44 | 48% 2255-2437 (4692) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $4.05 | $4.74 | +$0.69 | 54% 997-856 (1853) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $3.8 | $3.8 | +$0 | 47% 1666-1892 (3558) |
Invested
$765
Value
$760.75
PnL
-$4.25
Record
26%
153-428 (581)
Invested
$699.21
Value
$695.33
PnL
-$3.88
Record
59%
3535-2417 (5952)
Invested
$385.37
Value
$387.54
PnL
+$2.17
Record
40%
80-118 (198)
Invested
$54.05
Value
$170
PnL
+$145.95
Record
—
2-10 (12)
Invested
$40.68
Value
$40.45
PnL
-$0.23
Record
46%
443-515 (958)
Invested
$100.38
Value
$34.82
PnL
+$29.44
Record
48%
2255-2437 (4692)
Invested
$4.05
Value
$4.74
PnL
+$0.69
Record
54%
997-856 (1853)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$3.8
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
1666-1892 (3558)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.