Will Netherlands win on 2026-11-16?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 74¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 16

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$0.75

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 73.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,595

Combined PnL-$1.2

Yes3 traders

Total Value$104.42

Total Shares402

Combined PnL+$1.95

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P	Noavg 73¢	$638.43	$638.43	+$0	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
GC GC-P	Noavg 73¢	$332.47	$332.47	+$0	42% 547-747 (1294)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 73¢	$95.06	$74.16	-$0.9	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$63.94	$63.51	-$0.43	56% 649-514 (1163)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$40.32	$43.68	+$3.36	16% 58-297 (355)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 73.1¢	$41.85	$41.77	-$0.08	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$38.08	$36.67	-$1.41	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$24.07	$24.07	+$0	61% 1081-678 (1759)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 72¢	$14.7	$14.9	+$0.2	53% 1883-1643 (3526)

NM-P

Invested

$638.43

Value

$638.43

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

GC-P

Invested

$332.47

Value

$332.47

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$95.06

Value

$74.16

PnL

-$0.9

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$63.94

Value

$63.51

PnL

-$0.43

Record

56%

649-514 (1163)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.32

Value

$43.68

PnL

+$3.36

Record

16%

58-297 (355)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$41.85

Value

$41.77

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.08

Value

$36.67

PnL

-$1.41

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.07

Value

$24.07

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

1081-678 (1759)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$14.7

Value

$14.9

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.