Will San Marino win on 2026-11-15?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 99¢ · $782 held · ends Nov 15

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$781.9

Combined PnL

-$76.87

Smart Money Entry

98.6¢ → 98.9¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$777.35

Total Shares789

Combined PnL-$64.42

Yes2 traders

Total Value$4.55

Total Shares650

Combined PnL-$12.45

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 98.7¢	$208.04	$207.62	-$0.42	36% 513-930 (1443)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 98¢	$156.8	$157.6	+$0.8	53% 7196-6292 (13488)
VE Venusian	Noavg 99¢	$118.8	$118.2	-$0.6	37% 1048-1799 (2847)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 99¢	$118.8	$118.2	-$0.6	38% 1068-1766 (2834)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 98.5¢	$267.83	$70.09	-$63.74	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$63.89	$64.07	+$0.18	53% 1867-1658 (3525)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$41.61	$41.57	-$0.04	51% 76-72 (148)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$12	$2.8	-$9.2	31% 38-84 (122)
CA canupdatelateronCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$5	$1.75	-$3.25	69% 27-12 (39)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$208.04

Value

$207.62

PnL

-$0.42

Record

36%

513-930 (1443)

cigarettes

Invested

$156.8

Value

$157.6

PnL

+$0.8

Record

53%

7196-6292 (13488)

Venusian

Invested

$118.8

Value

$118.2

PnL

-$0.6

Record

37%

1048-1799 (2847)

MadridTime

Invested

$118.8

Value

$118.2

PnL

-$0.6

Record

38%

1068-1766 (2834)

38791873984189

Invested

$267.83

Value

$70.09

PnL

-$63.74

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$63.89

Value

$64.07

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

1867-1658 (3525)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$41.61

Value

$41.57

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

76-72 (148)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$9.2

Record

31%

38-84 (122)

canupdatelateronCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$3.25

Record

69%

27-12 (39)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.