Spain vs. England: O/U 3.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 62¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Over39¢Under61¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$8.05

Smart Money Entry

61.4¢ → 61.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares5,653

Combined PnL-$8.25

Over2 traders

Total Value$12.58

Total Shares33

Combined PnL+$0.2

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 62¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$22.37	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
KY Kyn008	Underavg 61¢	$793.7	$800.2	+$6.51	41% 156-221 (377)
GC GC-P	Underavg 61¢	$518.5	$522.75	+$4.25	42% 547-747 (1294)
NM NM-P	Underavg 61¢	$518.5	$522.75	+$4.25	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 61¢	$105.53	$105.53	+$0	48% 469-508 (977)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 61.4¢	$89.99	$89.43	-$0.56	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 61.7¢	$63.58	$62.86	-$0.72	56% 649-514 (1163)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 60¢	$24.08	$24.48	+$0.4	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$10.96	$11.11	+$0.14	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$1.42	$1.48	+$0.06	46% 3204-3750 (6954)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,357.9

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$22.37

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

Kyn008

Under

Invested

$793.7

Value

$800.2

PnL

+$6.51

Record

41%

156-221 (377)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$518.5

Value

$522.75

PnL

+$4.25

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$518.5

Value

$522.75

PnL

+$4.25

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$105.53

Value

$105.53

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$89.99

Value

$89.43

PnL

-$0.56

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$63.58

Value

$62.86

PnL

-$0.72

Record

56%

649-514 (1163)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$24.08

Value

$24.48

PnL

+$0.4

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.96

Value

$11.11

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.42

Value

$1.48

PnL

+$0.06

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.