Spain vs. England: England O/U 1.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 60¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Over40¢Under60¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$90.8

Smart Money Entry

63.7¢ → 60¢

-6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,756

Combined PnL-$98.67

Over3 traders

Total Value$200.45

Total Shares500

Combined PnL+$7.87

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Underavg 64¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$79.58	60% 533-362 (895)
P1 P1kaso	Underavg 61¢	$244	$244	-$0	21% 32-119 (151)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 63.7¢	$236.63	$226.78	-$9.85	56% 672-523 (1195)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$540	$195.18	+$0.12	64% 145-83 (228)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$120	+$20
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$93.98	$75.18	-$19.88
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Underavg 64¢	$192	$183	-$9	47% 41-47 (88)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 39.1¢	$174.28	$178.51	+$4.23	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 65¢	$25.1	$23.88	-$0.23	53% 2377-2113 (4490)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$13.36	$17.12	+$3.76	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$4.94	$4.82	-$0.12	38% 1375-2208 (3583)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under

Invested

$1,697.8

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$79.58

Record

60%

533-362 (895)

P1kaso

Under

Invested

$244

Value

$244

PnL

-$0

Record

21%

32-119 (151)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$236.63

Value

$226.78

PnL

-$9.85

Record

56%

672-523 (1195)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$540

Value

$195.18

PnL

+$0.12

Record

64%

145-83 (228)

Both legs:

Under$10050¢+$20

Over$93.9850¢-$19.88

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Under

Invested

$192

Value

$183

PnL

-$9

Record

47%

41-47 (88)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$174.28

Value

$178.51

PnL

+$4.23

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$25.1

Value

$23.88

PnL

-$0.23

Record

53%

2377-2113 (4490)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.36

Value

$17.12

PnL

+$3.76

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.94

Value

$4.82

PnL

-$0.12

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.