Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 England?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 88¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$1.5K
$109.35
93¢ → 88¢
-5% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-P | Noavg 93¢ | $790.5 | $794.75 | +$4.25 | 43% 561-753 (1314) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 93¢ | $305.57 | $307.21 | +$1.64 | 59% 3960-2731 (6691) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 92.6¢ | $156.02 | $148.1 | +$1.58 | 53% 1923-1675 (3598) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 93¢ | $112.88 | $112.88 | +$0 | 36% 649-1179 (1828) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $35.21 | $32.7 | -$2.51 | 46% 3336-3878 (7214) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $21.61 | $21.61 | +$0 | 38% 1375-2257 (3632) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 93¢ | $197.18 | $16.54 | +$19.36 | 48% 3997-4384 (8381) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $54.05 | $11.9 | +$85.03 | 20% 30-119 (149) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $9.89 | $9.89 | +$0 | 53% 2377-2113 (4490) |
Invested
$790.5
Value
$794.75
PnL
+$4.25
Record
43%
561-753 (1314)
Invested
$305.57
Value
$307.21
PnL
+$1.64
Record
59%
3960-2731 (6691)
VeryLucky888Invested
$156.02
Value
$148.1
PnL
+$1.58
Record
53%
1923-1675 (3598)
Invested
$112.88
Value
$112.88
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
649-1179 (1828)
Invested
$35.21
Value
$32.7
PnL
-$2.51
Record
46%
3336-3878 (7214)
Invested
$21.61
Value
$21.61
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1375-2257 (3632)
Invested
$197.18
Value
$16.54
PnL
+$19.36
Record
48%
3997-4384 (8381)
Invested
$54.05
Value
$11.9
PnL
+$85.03
Record
20%
30-119 (149)
Invested
$9.89
Value
$9.89
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
2377-2113 (4490)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.