Will Spain vs. England end in a draw?
4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 77¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 40%
$4.7K
$4.11
76.1¢ → 76.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Mature
42h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C6 C63AMG | Noavg 76¢ | $3.8K | $3.8K | +$25 | 77% 20-6 (26) |
VE VenusianCTR | Yesavg 24¢ | $342.2 | $335.07 | -$7.13 | 38% 1284-2117 (3401) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 77.7¢ | $193.19 | $189.06 | -$4.13 | 42% 522-731 (1253) |
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 24¢ | $127.02 | $124.37 | -$2.65 | 38% 1261-2087 (3348) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $98.53 | $96.48 | -$2.05 | 37% 1279-2142 (3421) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $95.29 | $93.3 | -$1.99 | 38% 1289-2093 (3382) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $38.76 | $38.76 | +$0 | 59% 3923-2711 (6634) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.4¢ | $15.08 | $9.79 | +$0.05 | 52% 2195-1999 (4194) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.3¢ | $10 | $7.05 | -$2.95 | 48% 3772-4126 (7898) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $3.35 | $3.3 | -$0.04 | 35% 131-241 (372) |
Invested
$3,799.96
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$25
Record
77%
20-6 (26)
Invested
$342.2
Value
$335.07
PnL
-$7.13
Record
38%
1284-2117 (3401)
Invested
$193.19
Value
$189.06
PnL
-$4.13
Record
42%
522-731 (1253)
Invested
$127.02
Value
$124.37
PnL
-$2.65
Record
38%
1261-2087 (3348)
Invested
$98.53
Value
$96.48
PnL
-$2.05
Record
37%
1279-2142 (3421)
Invested
$95.29
Value
$93.3
PnL
-$1.99
Record
38%
1289-2093 (3382)
Invested
$38.76
Value
$38.76
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3923-2711 (6634)
Invested
$15.08
Value
$9.79
PnL
+$0.05
Record
52%
2195-1999 (4194)
Invested
$10
Value
$7.05
PnL
-$2.95
Record
48%
3772-4126 (7898)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.3
PnL
-$0.04
Record
35%
131-241 (372)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.