Exact Score: England 4 - 1 Croatia?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 96¢ · $986 held · ended Nov 12

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$986.15

Combined PnL

$41.01

Smart Money Entry

94.7¢ → 95.8¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$883.87

Total Shares928

Combined PnL+$2.25

Yes4 traders

Total Value$102.29

Total Shares1,748

Combined PnL+$38.76

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 94.6¢	$552.79	$555.19	+$2.39	46% 443-515 (958)
LI Limousin	Noavg 94.8¢	$217.85	$218.03	+$0.18	33% 539-1116 (1655)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$57.11	$56.91	-$0.2	33% 556-1141 (1697)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$56	+$28.97	— 2-10 (12)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.8¢	$56.43	$42.19	+$0.17	54% 997-856 (1853)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$20.81	$22.29	+$1.48	47% 1666-1892 (3558)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 3.8¢	$226.21	$13.47	+$7.84	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$12.32	$11.55	-$0.29	32% 542-1134 (1676)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$10.06	$10.53	+$0.47	44% 165-210 (375)

SnakeBall

Invested

$552.79

Value

$555.19

PnL

+$2.39

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

Limousin

Invested

$217.85

Value

$218.03

PnL

+$0.18

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$57.11

Value

$56.91

PnL

-$0.2

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$56

PnL

+$28.97

Record

—

2-10 (12)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$56.43

Value

$42.19

PnL

+$0.17

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.81

Value

$22.29

PnL

+$1.48

Record

47%

1666-1892 (3558)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$226.21

Value

$13.47

PnL

+$7.84

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$12.32

Value

$11.55

PnL

-$0.29

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.06

Value

$10.53

PnL

+$0.47

Record

44%

165-210 (375)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.0%

95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.