Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 91¢ · $768 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$768.22
$56.23
90.9¢ → 91¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-P | Noavg 90.8¢ | $288.78 | $289.42 | +$0.64 | 59% 3535-2417 (5952) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 91¢ | $227.5 | $227.5 | -$0 | 26% 153-428 (581) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $27.03 | $80 | +$52.97 | — 2-10 (12) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $57.33 | $57.33 | +$0 | 33% 556-1140 (1696) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $55.7 | $55.7 | +$0 | 34% 564-1115 (1679) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $37.9 | $33.69 | -$4.21 | 32% 542-1133 (1675) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $13.87 | $15.29 | +$7.42 | 48% 2245-2429 (4674) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.9¢ | $5.12 | $5.48 | +$0.36 | 54% 997-856 (1853) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $4.76 | $3.81 | -$0.95 | 47% 1656-1884 (3540) |
Invested
$288.78
Value
$289.42
PnL
+$0.64
Record
59%
3535-2417 (5952)
Invested
$227.5
Value
$227.5
PnL
-$0
Record
26%
153-428 (581)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$80
PnL
+$52.97
Record
—
2-10 (12)
Invested
$57.33
Value
$57.33
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
556-1140 (1696)
Invested
$55.7
Value
$55.7
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
564-1115 (1679)
Invested
$37.9
Value
$33.69
PnL
-$4.21
Record
32%
542-1133 (1675)
Invested
$13.87
Value
$15.29
PnL
+$7.42
Record
48%
2245-2429 (4674)
Invested
$5.12
Value
$5.48
PnL
+$0.36
Record
54%
997-856 (1853)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$3.81
PnL
-$0.95
Record
47%
1656-1884 (3540)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.