Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 70%
$2.2K
$20.06
96.9¢ → 96.8¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU suntori | Noavg 97.1¢ | $952.38 | $949.44 | -$2.94 | 47% 1666-1892 (3558) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 96.9¢ | $422.16 | $422.44 | +$0.27 | 33% 539-1116 (1655) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 96.6¢ | $267.21 | $268.15 | +$0.94 | 32% 542-1134 (1676) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 96.5¢ | $174.13 | $175 | +$0.87 | 59% 3535-2417 (5952) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 96.5¢ | $110.16 | $110.71 | +$0.55 | 26% 153-428 (581) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 96.6¢ | $106.27 | $106.64 | +$0.37 | 33% 556-1141 (1697) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $39.71 | $48.75 | +$9.04 | 46% 443-515 (958) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $48.25 | $48.25 | -$0 | 34% 564-1116 (1680) |
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $34 | +$6.97 | — 2-10 (12) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $13.74 | $17.72 | +$3.98 | 48% 2255-2437 (4692) |
Invested
$952.38
Value
$949.44
PnL
-$2.94
Record
47%
1666-1892 (3558)
Invested
$422.16
Value
$422.44
PnL
+$0.27
Record
33%
539-1116 (1655)
Invested
$267.21
Value
$268.15
PnL
+$0.94
Record
32%
542-1134 (1676)
Invested
$174.13
Value
$175
PnL
+$0.87
Record
59%
3535-2417 (5952)
Invested
$110.16
Value
$110.71
PnL
+$0.55
Record
26%
153-428 (581)
Invested
$106.27
Value
$106.64
PnL
+$0.37
Record
33%
556-1141 (1697)
Invested
$39.71
Value
$48.75
PnL
+$9.04
Record
46%
443-515 (958)
Invested
$48.25
Value
$48.25
PnL
-$0
Record
34%
564-1116 (1680)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$34
PnL
+$6.97
Record
—
2-10 (12)
Invested
$13.74
Value
$17.72
PnL
+$3.98
Record
48%
2255-2437 (4692)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.