Will England win on 2026-11-12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 78¢ · $581 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$580.87
-$1.9
77.3¢ → 77.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-P | Yesavg 77¢ | $308.09 | $308.09 | +$0 | 16% 64-346 (410) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Yesavg 78¢ | $176.95 | $174.69 | -$2.27 | 61% 891-567 (1458) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Yesavg 77¢ | $46.1 | $46.46 | +$0.36 | 48% 674-721 (1395) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 77¢ | $39.62 | $39.79 | +$0.16 | 52% 223-209 (432) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 78¢ | $12 | $11.85 | -$0.15 | 28% 148-373 (521) |
Invested
$308.09
Value
$308.09
PnL
+$0
Record
16%
64-346 (410)
Invested
$176.95
Value
$174.69
PnL
-$2.27
Record
61%
891-567 (1458)
Invested
$46.1
Value
$46.46
PnL
+$0.36
Record
48%
674-721 (1395)
Invested
$39.62
Value
$39.79
PnL
+$0.16
Record
52%
223-209 (432)
Invested
$12
Value
$11.85
PnL
-$0.15
Record
28%
148-373 (521)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.