Spread: Czechia (-1.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Spain (25%) · Spain at 98¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Czechia2¢Spain98¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spain

Consensus Traders

Spain 25%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$8.43

Smart Money Entry

98.5¢ → 98.4¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpain at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spain

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Czechia2%

Spain98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spain2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,567

Combined PnL-$2.57

Czechia6 traders

Total Value$83.83

Total Shares6,448

Combined PnL-$5.87

Spain — 25%Czechia — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-55 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Spain. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCzechia 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Czechia 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KM kmak1	Spainavg 98.5¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$2.54	— 0-8 (8)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Czechiaavg 1.3¢	$31.57	$31.57	+$0	41% 66-94 (160)
SU suntori<$100	Spainavg 98.6¢	$28.57	$28.54	-$0.03	47% 1625-1826 (3451)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Czechiaavg 1.5¢	$22.59	$19.58	-$3.01	36% 209-369 (578)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Czechiaavg 1.5¢	$15.24	$13.21	-$2.03	55% 1645-1352 (2997)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Czechiaavg 1.3¢	$11.94	$11.94	-$0	40% 78-117 (195)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Czechiaavg 1.4¢	$6.91	$6.28	-$0.63	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Czechiaavg 1.5¢	$1.45	$1.26	-$0.19	54% 994-856 (1850)

kmak1

Spain

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$2.54

Record

—

0-8 (8)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Czechia

Invested

$31.57

Value

$31.57

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

66-94 (160)

suntori<$100

Spain

Invested

$28.57

Value

$28.54

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Czechia

Invested

$22.59

Value

$19.58

PnL

-$3.01

Record

36%

209-369 (578)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Czechia

Invested

$15.24

Value

$13.21

PnL

-$2.03

Record

55%

1645-1352 (2997)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Czechia

Invested

$11.94

Value

$11.94

PnL

-$0

Record

40%

78-117 (195)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Czechia

Invested

$6.91

Value

$6.28

PnL

-$0.63

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Czechia

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$0.19

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

Research grade

NeutralSpain at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Spain

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-55 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Spain. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCzechia 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Czechia 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spain wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.