Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 4 Spain?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 95¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$4.7K
-$648.17
93.6¢ → 95.3¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$42.25 | 52% 754-704 (1458) |
FO forecastication4 | Noavg 93¢ | $1.8K | $1.2K | -$585.21 | 27% 102-276 (378) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 94.8¢ | $693.81 | $461.08 | -$232.73 | 36% 209-368 (577) |
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $27.03 | $370 | +$342.97 | — 2-9 (11) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94.8¢ | $475.74 | $316.16 | -$159.59 | 46% 438-515 (953) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $190.22 | $148.2 | -$42.02 | 48% 2153-2339 (4492) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $31.62 | $21.42 | -$10.2 | 52% 184-170 (354) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $10.88 | $7.23 | -$3.65 | 53% 925-815 (1740) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,099.75
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$42.25
Record
52%
754-704 (1458)
Invested
$1,814.15
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$585.21
Record
27%
102-276 (378)
Invested
$693.81
Value
$461.08
PnL
-$232.73
Record
36%
209-368 (577)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$370
PnL
+$342.97
Record
—
2-9 (11)
Invested
$475.74
Value
$316.16
PnL
-$159.59
Record
46%
438-515 (953)
Invested
$190.22
Value
$148.2
PnL
-$42.02
Record
48%
2153-2339 (4492)
Invested
$31.62
Value
$21.42
PnL
-$10.2
Record
52%
184-170 (354)
Invested
$10.88
Value
$7.23
PnL
-$3.65
Record
53%
925-815 (1740)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.