Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bulgaria vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 50¢ · $253 held · ends Nov 13

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$252.73

Combined PnL

$2.68

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 49.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$135.72

Total Shares269

Combined PnL+$3.03

Yes6 traders

Total Value$117.01

Total Shares238

Combined PnL-$0.35

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 49¢	$61.25	$63.13	+$1.88	53% 1030-921 (1951)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 49.9¢	$52.87	$53.46	+$0.59	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$24.78	$25.03	+$0.25	48% 677-745 (1422)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 50.8¢	$23.8	$23.19	-$0.61	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$19.33	$19.33	+$0	35% 735-1379 (2114)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$17.6	$17.6	+$0	36% 761-1361 (2122)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$17.14	$17.14	+$0	56% 307-245 (552)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$14.71	$14.71	+$0	36% 326-587 (913)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 49¢	$12.74	$13.13	+$0.39	47% 189-212 (401)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 49¢	$5.83	$6	+$0.18	53% 1326-1186 (2512)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$61.25

Value

$63.13

PnL

+$1.88

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$52.87

Value

$53.46

PnL

+$0.59

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.78

Value

$25.03

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.8

Value

$23.19

PnL

-$0.61

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.33

Value

$19.33

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.6

Value

$17.6

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.14

Value

$17.14

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.71

Value

$14.71

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$12.74

Value

$13.13

PnL

+$0.39

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.83

Value

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.