Exact Score: Belarus 1 - 2 Albania?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 91¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$9.45

Smart Money Entry

89.2¢ → 90.5¢

+1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,751

Combined PnL+$5.95

Yes1 trader

Total Value$247.55

Total Shares2,606

Combined PnL+$3.51

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Noavg 91¢	$896.73	$891.8	-$4.93	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 90¢	$774	$774	+$0	48% 472-515 (987)
GC GC-P	Noavg 90¢	$469.8	$469.8	+$0	42% 548-748 (1296)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 90¢	$357.64	$357.64	+$0	35% 635-1160 (1795)
NM NM-P	Noavg 90¢	$315	$315	+$0	59% 3950-2729 (6679)
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 9.4¢	$244.05	$247.55	+$3.51	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 90¢	$201.78	$201.78	+$0	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 91¢	$148.62	$147.8	-$0.82	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 91¢	$120.55	$119.89	-$0.66	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Noavg 50¢	$143	$104.94	-$1.06	64% 145-83 (228)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 90.1¢	$127.95	$10.4	+$13.44	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 91¢	$4.55	$4.53	-$0.02	38% 1354-2217 (3571)

Limousin

Invested

$896.73

Value

$891.8

PnL

-$4.93

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$774

Value

$774

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

472-515 (987)

GC-P

Invested

$469.8

Value

$469.8

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

548-748 (1296)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$357.64

Value

$357.64

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

635-1160 (1795)

NM-P

Invested

$315

Value

$315

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3950-2729 (6679)

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$244.05

Value

$247.55

PnL

+$3.51

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$201.78

Value

$201.78

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

LightParadox

Invested

$148.62

Value

$147.8

PnL

-$0.82

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

MadridTime

Invested

$120.55

Value

$119.89

PnL

-$0.66

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Invested

$143

Value

$104.94

PnL

-$1.06

Record

64%

145-83 (228)

38791873984189

Invested

$127.95

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$13.44

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.53

PnL

-$0.02

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.