Belgium vs. Italy: O/U 1.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 81¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Over81¢Under19¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$24.95

Smart Money Entry

79.1¢ → 81¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over81%

Under19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,596

Combined PnL+$14.14

Under5 traders

Total Value$271.79

Total Shares1,502

Combined PnL-$39.1

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 79.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$13.37	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 21¢	$275.04	$235.75	-$39.29	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 79¢	$76.63	$77.6	+$0.97	44% 337-422 (759)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$14.29	$14.29	-$0	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$12.11	$13.45	+$1.35	48% 469-508 (977)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Overavg 82¢	$7.49	$7.31	-$0.18	62% 265-160 (425)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$4.68	$4.21	-$0.47	35% 628-1146 (1774)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$4.78	$4.09	-$0.68	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
HY hydra1248<$100	Overavg 81¢	$1.56	$1.54	-$0.02	74% 235-83 (318)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,177.14

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$13.37

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$275.04

Value

$235.75

PnL

-$39.29

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$76.63

Value

$77.6

PnL

+$0.97

Record

44%

337-422 (759)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.29

Value

$14.29

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.11

Value

$13.45

PnL

+$1.35

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

thatsabing0<$100

Over

Invested

$7.49

Value

$7.31

PnL

-$0.18

Record

62%

265-160 (425)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.68

Value

$4.21

PnL

-$0.47

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.78

Value

$4.09

PnL

-$0.68

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

hydra1248<$100

Over

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.54

PnL

-$0.02

Record

74%

235-83 (318)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.