Exact Score: Belgium 4 - 3 Italy?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$26.94

Smart Money Entry

99.1¢ → 98.6¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,462

Combined PnL+$4.52

Yes5 traders

Total Value$7.42

Total Shares1,673

Combined PnL-$31.46

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Noavg 99¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$4.57	38% 1379-2246 (3625)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 99¢	$661.68	$663.35	+$1.67	46% 1216-1411 (2627)
VE Venusian	Noavg 99.2¢	$485.05	$484.29	-$0.76	38% 1404-2275 (3679)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 99.2¢	$471.37	$470.4	-$0.97	38% 1406-2304 (3710)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$4	-$23.03	20% 30-119 (149)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.83	$1.56	+$0.73	53% 1960-1712 (3672)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$9.43	$1.4	-$8.04	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$1.42	$0.44	-$0.98	46% 3371-3906 (7277)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.16	$0.02	-$0.14	40% 2687-4008 (6695)

Limousin

Invested

$1,810.58

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$4.57

Record

38%

1379-2246 (3625)

SnakeBall

Invested

$661.68

Value

$663.35

PnL

+$1.67

Record

46%

1216-1411 (2627)

Venusian

Invested

$485.05

Value

$484.29

PnL

-$0.76

Record

38%

1404-2275 (3679)

LightParadox

Invested

$471.37

Value

$470.4

PnL

-$0.97

Record

38%

1406-2304 (3710)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

PnL

-$23.03

Record

20%

30-119 (149)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.83

Value

$1.56

PnL

+$0.73

Record

53%

1960-1712 (3672)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.43

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$8.04

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.42

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$0.98

Record

46%

3371-3906 (7277)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.14

Record

40%

2687-4008 (6695)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.