Exact Score: Belgium 4 - 2 Italy?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$3.4K
$16.02
98.2¢ → 99.4¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+36 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 98.3¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$17.99 | 46% 1216-1411 (2627) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 98.1¢ | $506.32 | $512.77 | +$6.45 | 38% 1406-2304 (3710) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 98.1¢ | $465.9 | $471.84 | +$5.94 | 38% 1379-2246 (3625) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 98.1¢ | $365.61 | $370.27 | +$4.66 | 38% 1404-2275 (3679) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 98.1¢ | $356.05 | $360.59 | +$4.54 | 38% 1398-2248 (3646) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $27.03 | $10 | -$17.03 | 20% 30-119 (149) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $57.77 | $7.94 | -$5.64 | 48% 4016-4413 (8429) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $1.9 | $1.12 | -$0.78 | 46% 3371-3906 (7277) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $0.16 | $0.06 | -$0.1 | 40% 2687-4008 (6695) |
Invested
$1,679.61
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$17.99
Record
46%
1216-1411 (2627)
Invested
$506.32
Value
$512.77
PnL
+$6.45
Record
38%
1406-2304 (3710)
Invested
$465.9
Value
$471.84
PnL
+$5.94
Record
38%
1379-2246 (3625)
Invested
$365.61
Value
$370.27
PnL
+$4.66
Record
38%
1404-2275 (3679)
Invested
$356.05
Value
$360.59
PnL
+$4.54
Record
38%
1398-2248 (3646)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$10
PnL
-$17.03
Record
20%
30-119 (149)
Invested
$57.77
Value
$7.94
PnL
-$5.64
Record
48%
4016-4413 (8429)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.12
PnL
-$0.78
Record
46%
3371-3906 (7277)
Invested
$0.16
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$0.1
Record
40%
2687-4008 (6695)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.