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7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 92¢ · $771 held · ended Nov 15

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$770.68

Combined PnL

$75.23

Smart Money Entry

92¢ → 92¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$721.11

Total Shares761

Combined PnL+$22.3

Yes3 traders

Total Value$49.56

Total Shares624

Combined PnL+$52.93

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 92¢	$196.09	$197.15	+$1.07	46% 1216-1411 (2627)
NM NM-P	Noavg 91.9¢	$179.87	$181.15	+$1.27	59% 3966-2735 (6701)
GC GC-P	Noavg 92¢	$161	$161	+$0	43% 567-758 (1325)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 92¢	$82.7	$83.15	+$0.45	38% 1379-2246 (3625)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 92¢	$102.38	$68.8	+$19.42	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$43.64	+$52.97	20% 30-119 (149)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 92¢	$21.85	$21.85	+$0	48% 495-537 (1032)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91¢	$7.93	$8.01	+$0.09	53% 2377-2113 (4490)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$5.8	$5.44	-$0.36	46% 3371-3906 (7277)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.16	$0.48	+$0.32	40% 2687-4008 (6695)

SnakeBall

Invested

$196.09

Value

$197.15

PnL

+$1.07

Record

46%

1216-1411 (2627)

NM-P

Invested

$179.87

Value

$181.15

PnL

+$1.27

Record

59%

3966-2735 (6701)

GC-P

Invested

$161

Value

$161

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

567-758 (1325)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$82.7

Value

$83.15

PnL

+$0.45

Record

38%

1379-2246 (3625)

38791873984189

Invested

$102.38

Value

$68.8

PnL

+$19.42

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$43.64

PnL

+$52.97

Record

20%

30-119 (149)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$21.85

Value

$21.85

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

495-537 (1032)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.93

Value

$8.01

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

2377-2113 (4490)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.8

Value

$5.44

PnL

-$0.36

Record

46%

3371-3906 (7277)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.48

PnL

+$0.32

Record

40%

2687-4008 (6695)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.