Cyprus leading at halftime?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 69¢ · $735 held · ends Nov 12

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$735.07

Combined PnL

$16.48

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 68.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$734.67

Total Shares1,027

Combined PnL+$16.54

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.39

Total Shares2

Combined PnL-$0.06

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 69¢	$281.47	$285.55	+$4.08	52% 761-712 (1473)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 69¢	$149.51	$148.64	-$0.87	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 69¢	$115.35	$126.22	+$10.87	36% 209-368 (577)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 69.1¢	$113.32	$113.23	-$0.09	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 69¢	$23.46	$25.67	+$2.21	40% 77-117 (194)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$25.65	$25.32	-$0.33	33% 558-1109 (1667)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 69¢	$4.62	$5.05	+$0.43	53% 933-821 (1754)
SU suntori<$100	Noavg 72¢	$4.76	$4.99	+$0.23	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$0.45	$0.39	-$0.06	52% 185-171 (356)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$281.47

Value

$285.55

PnL

+$4.08

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$149.51

Value

$148.64

PnL

-$0.87

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$115.35

Value

$126.22

PnL

+$10.87

Record

36%

209-368 (577)

38791873984189

Invested

$113.32

Value

$113.23

PnL

-$0.09

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$23.46

Value

$25.67

PnL

+$2.21

Record

40%

77-117 (194)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$25.65

Value

$25.32

PnL

-$0.33

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.62

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.43

Record

53%

933-821 (1754)

suntori<$100

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.23

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

185-171 (356)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.