Exact Score: Armenia 1 - 0 Cyprus?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 92¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$6.75

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 91.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$938.6

Total Shares1,041

Combined PnL+$1.7

Yes6 traders

Total Value$112.05

Total Shares1,228

Combined PnL-$8.45

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P	Noavg 90¢	$315	$315	-$0	59% 3534-2417 (5951)
GC GC-P	Noavg 90¢	$315	$315	-$0	26% 152-428 (580)
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b	Noavg 90¢	$306.9	$308.61	+$1.71	—
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$89.2	$80.28	-$8.92	33% 558-1109 (1667)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$18.49	$17.57	-$0.92	33% 553-1132 (1685)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$9.97	$9.47	-$0.5	33% 534-1108 (1642)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.81	$2.7	+$1.89	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$0.99	$1.05	+$0.05	40% 77-117 (194)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1.04	$0.99	-$0.05	47% 1583-1774 (3357)

NM-P

Invested

$315

Value

$315

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

3534-2417 (5951)

GC-P

Invested

$315

Value

$315

PnL

-$0

Record

26%

152-428 (580)

0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b

Invested

$306.9

Value

$308.61

PnL

+$1.71

Record

—

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.2

Value

$80.28

PnL

-$8.92

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.49

Value

$17.57

PnL

-$0.92

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.97

Value

$9.47

PnL

-$0.5

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.81

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$1.89

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.99

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

40%

77-117 (194)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.