Exact Score: Albania 0 - 2 Finland?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $262 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$261.54
-$0.95
96.5¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $84.98 | $85.4 | +$0.42 | 59% 3556-2429 (5985) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $78.28 | $80.59 | +$2.31 | 34% 592-1164 (1756) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $38.72 | $38.68 | -$0.04 | 33% 585-1187 (1772) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $29.3 | $30.28 | +$0.98 | 33% 563-1169 (1732) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $12.83 | $12.52 | -$0.32 | 54% 1032-892 (1924) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.9¢ | $10.05 | $8.61 | -$1.44 | 47% 1704-1945 (3649) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $85.61 | $5.09 | -$2.85 | 48% 2298-2502 (4800) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $0.38 | $0.37 | -$0.01 | 28% 171-441 (612) |
Invested
$84.98
Value
$85.4
PnL
+$0.42
Record
59%
3556-2429 (5985)
Invested
$78.28
Value
$80.59
PnL
+$2.31
Record
34%
592-1164 (1756)
Invested
$38.72
Value
$38.68
PnL
-$0.04
Record
33%
585-1187 (1772)
Invested
$29.3
Value
$30.28
PnL
+$0.98
Record
33%
563-1169 (1732)
Invested
$12.83
Value
$12.52
PnL
-$0.32
Record
54%
1032-892 (1924)
Invested
$10.05
Value
$8.61
PnL
-$1.44
Record
47%
1704-1945 (3649)
Invested
$85.61
Value
$5.09
PnL
-$2.85
Record
48%
2298-2502 (4800)
Invested
$0.38
Value
$0.37
PnL
-$0.01
Record
28%
171-441 (612)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.