Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-2.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold FK Obolon Kyiv (75%) · FK Obolon Kyiv at 59¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
FK Obolon Kyiv
4
FK Obolon Kyiv 75%
$1.4K
$78.46
58¢ → 58.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFK Obolon Kyiv at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | FK Obolon Kyivavg 58.2¢ | $769.94 | $761.32 | -$8.62 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | FK Shakhtar Donetskavg 42¢ | $493.23 | $581.38 | +$88.15 | 59% 45379-31733 (77112) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | FK Obolon Kyivavg 52¢ | $21.21 | $20.6 | -$0.61 | 49% 18981-19394 (38375) |
 HRTrading<$100 | FK Obolon Kyivavg 57.8¢ | $10.62 | $10.17 | -$0.46 | 52% 3998-3640 (7638) |
Invested
$769.94
Value
$761.32
PnL
-$8.62
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
Invested
$493.23
Value
$581.38
PnL
+$88.15
Record
59%
45379-31733 (77112)
Invested
$21.21
Value
$20.6
PnL
-$0.61
Record
49%
18981-19394 (38375)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10.62
Value
$10.17
PnL
-$0.46
Record
52%
3998-3640 (7638)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.