Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-10-30?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 90¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 57%
1 arb excluded
$4.1K
-$633.51
87.1¢ → 89.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 87.1¢ | $3.7K | $3.1K | -$639.34 | 49% 18981-19394 (38375) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 12.3¢ | $668.87 | $678.6 | +$9.73 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Yesavg 87¢ | $286.16 | $225.28 | -$3.14 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 87¢ | $174.1 | $175 | +$0.6 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 12.7¢ | $51.11 | $50.28 | -$3.74 | |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 88¢ | $70.34 | $69.94 | -$0.4 | 58% 28414-20974 (49388) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Yesavg 88¢ | $41.14 | $33.66 | -$7.48 | 59% 45379-31733 (77112) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 85¢ | $7.4 | $7.58 | +$0.18 | 52% 3998-3640 (7638) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Noavg 12.5¢ | $3 | $6.71 | +$3.71 | 62% 1124-678 (1802) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $0.62 | $0.7 | +$0.08 | 51% 5974-5666 (11640) |
Invested
$3,694.28
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$639.34
Record
49%
18981-19394 (38375)
Invested
$668.87
Value
$678.6
PnL
+$9.73
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$286.16
Value
$225.28
PnL
-$3.14
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
Both legs:
Invested
$70.34
Value
$69.94
PnL
-$0.4
Record
58%
28414-20974 (49388)
Invested
$41.14
Value
$33.66
PnL
-$7.48
Record
59%
45379-31733 (77112)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.4
Value
$7.58
PnL
+$0.18
Record
52%
3998-3640 (7638)
Invested
$3
Value
$6.71
PnL
+$3.71
Record
62%
1124-678 (1802)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$0.62
Value
$0.7
PnL
+$0.08
Record
51%
5974-5666 (11640)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.