Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (66%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FK Livyi Bereh vs. FSK Bukovyna Chernivtsi: O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 35¢ · $245 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$244.68
-$4.57
49.8¢ → 34.5¢
-31% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 66%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
87h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 45.9¢ | $83.34 | $116.48 | +$33.14 | 50% 23482-23489 (46971) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $97.58 | $65.68 | -$31.9 | 50% 48590-48183 (96773) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $63.14 | $53.63 | -$9.51 | 57% 60639-45678 (106317) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Overavg 10¢ | $2 | $6.9 | +$4.9 | 47% 116-130 (246) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $3.19 | $2 | -$1.19 | 53% 2990-2610 (5600) |
Invested
$83.34
Value
$116.48
PnL
+$33.14
Record
50%
23482-23489 (46971)
Invested
$97.58
Value
$65.68
PnL
-$31.9
Record
50%
48590-48183 (96773)
Invested
$63.14
Value
$53.63
PnL
-$9.51
Record
57%
60639-45678 (106317)
Invested
$2
Value
$6.9
PnL
+$4.9
Record
47%
116-130 (246)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$3.19
Value
$2
PnL
-$1.19
Record
53%
2990-2610 (5600)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.