Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: FK Kolos Kovalivka 2 - 1 FK Polissia?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 38¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.1K
-$130.07
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL BlackMamba08 | Noavg 29.3¢ | $205 | $433.65 | +$228.65 | 47% 120-133 (253) |
IW iWasEnoughCTR | Yesavg 100.4¢ | $1.0K | $380.5 | -$618.5 | 51% 12924-12461 (25385) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.88 | $201 | +$186.72 | 21% 612-2279 (2891) |
E1 E100hrall012u312nc0cgvvbvc8CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.11 | $42.24 | +$42.12 | 1% 1-148 (149) |
AS asdkjhsad<$100 | Noavg 0.1¢ | $0.06 | $30.99 | +$30.93 | — 0-4 (4) |
Invested
$205
Value
$433.65
PnL
+$228.65
Record
47%
120-133 (253)
Invested
$1,004
Value
$380.5
PnL
-$618.5
Record
51%
12924-12461 (25385)
Invested
$0.88
Value
$201
PnL
+$186.72
Record
21%
612-2279 (2891)
Invested
$0.11
Value
$42.24
PnL
+$42.12
Record
1%
1-148 (149)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$30.99
PnL
+$30.93
Record
—
0-4 (4)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.