Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: FK Kolos Kovalivka 2 - 0 FK Polissia?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 38¢ · $461 held · ended Nov 1

Yes38¢No62¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$460.92

Combined PnL

-$9.29

Smart Money Entry

33.8¢ → 37.5¢

+11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$303.98

Total Shares811

Combined PnL+$30.22

No3 traders

Total Value$156.94

Total Shares251

Combined PnL-$39.51

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

124h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$9.3	$129.1	+$119.8	—
VeryLucky888	Noavg 97.7¢	$200	$125	-$70.3	49% 60-63 (123)
IW iWasEnoughCTR	Yesavg 99.9¢	$249.75	$93.75	-$156	—
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$4.7	$75	+$70.3	0% 0-36 (36)
AS asdkjhsad<$100	Noavg 0.1¢	$0.04	$25	+$24.96	—
BL BlackMamba08<$100	Noavg 10¢	$1.11	$6.94	+$5.83	—
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$10	$4.17	-$5.83	21% 60-222 (282)
SilentSharkCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$1.96	+$1.95	—

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR

Yes

Invested

$9.3

Value

$129.1

PnL

+$119.8

Record

—

VeryLucky888

Invested

$200

Value

$125

PnL

-$70.3

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

iWasEnoughCTR

Yes

Invested

$249.75

Value

$93.75

PnL

-$156

Record

—

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.7

Value

$75

PnL

+$70.3

Record

0-36 (36)

asdkjhsad<$100

Invested

$0.04

Value

$25

PnL

+$24.96

Record

—

BlackMamba08<$100

Invested

$1.11

Value

$6.94

PnL

+$5.83

Record

—

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$4.17

PnL

-$5.83

Record

21%

60-222 (282)

SilentSharkCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$1.96

PnL

+$1.95

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

124h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.