Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: FK LNZ Cherkasy 0 - 3 FK Kharkiv?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 38¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$1.1K
$93.05
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
30h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SilentShark | Noavg 2.1¢ | $17.33 | $512 | +$495.48 | 58% 196-140 (336) |
IW iWasEnoughCTR | Yesavg 100.4¢ | $1.0K | $380 | -$619 | 51% 12924-12461 (25385) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $1.69 | $191.03 | +$177.44 | 21% 612-2279 (2891) |
AS asdkjhsad<$100 | Noavg 0.1¢ | $0.05 | $27.88 | +$27.83 | — 0-4 (4) |
E1 E100hrall012u312nc0cgvvbvc8CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.02 | $7.6 | +$7.58 | 1% 1-148 (149) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Noavg 10¢ | $0.63 | $3.89 | +$3.27 | 47% 120-133 (253) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $0.03 | $0.48 | +$0.45 | 45% 32075-39228 (71303) |
SilentSharkInvested
$17.33
Value
$512
PnL
+$495.48
Record
58%
196-140 (336)
Invested
$1,004
Value
$380
PnL
-$619
Record
51%
12924-12461 (25385)
Invested
$1.69
Value
$191.03
PnL
+$177.44
Record
21%
612-2279 (2891)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$27.88
PnL
+$27.83
Record
—
0-4 (4)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$7.6
PnL
+$7.58
Record
1%
1-148 (149)
Invested
$0.63
Value
$3.89
PnL
+$3.27
Record
47%
120-133 (253)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.48
PnL
+$0.45
Record
45%
32075-39228 (71303)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.