Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: FK LNZ Cherkasy 0 - 1 FK Kharkiv?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 38¢ · $439 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$439.48
$405.63
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
35h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $18.16 | $254.95 | +$236.79 | 22% 656-2366 (3022) |
 SilentSharkCTR | Yesavg 1¢ | $4.56 | $172.93 | +$168.38 | 58% 196-140 (336) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Noavg 10¢ | $1.11 | $6.89 | +$5.78 | 47% 123-136 (259) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Yesavg 90¢ | $10 | $4.22 | -$5.78 | 65% 25736-13843 (39579) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.03 | $0.48 | +$0.46 | 45% 32128-39276 (71404) |
Invested
$18.16
Value
$254.95
PnL
+$236.79
Record
22%
656-2366 (3022)
SilentSharkCTRInvested
$4.56
Value
$172.93
PnL
+$168.38
Record
58%
196-140 (336)
Invested
$1.11
Value
$6.89
PnL
+$5.78
Record
47%
123-136 (259)
Invested
$10
Value
$4.22
PnL
-$5.78
Record
65%
25736-13843 (39579)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.48
PnL
+$0.46
Record
45%
32128-39276 (71404)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.