UFC Fight Night: Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Luana Santos (43%) · Luana Santos at 75¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 1

Yana Santos26¢Luana Santos74¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Luana Santos

Consensus Traders

Luana Santos 43%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$14.07

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 74.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralLuana Santos at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Luana Santos

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yana Santos26%

Luana Santos75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Luana Santos3 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares5,638

Combined PnL+$86.87

Yana Santos4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares5,528

Combined PnL-$100.95

Luana Santos — 43%Yana Santos — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Luana Santos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYana Santos 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLuana Santos 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yana Santos 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO PollyPepperoni	Luana Santosavg 71.2¢	$3.3K	$2.4K	+$74.31	54% 77-66 (143)
elmcap2	Luana Santosavg 74¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$11.81	89% 1652-202 (1854)
C6 C63AMGCTR	Yana Santosavg 28.9¢	$982.28	$884.11	-$81.17	73% 868-328 (1196)
RO roscoffCTR	Yana Santosavg 26¢	$520	$510	-$10	55% 163-134 (297)
PL PLACEYOURBETS123CTR<$100	Yana Santosavg 35¢	$40.51	$30.09	-$9.84	58% 57-41 (98)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Luana Santosavg 66¢	$6.6	$7.35	+$0.75	47% 2296-2570 (4866)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Yana Santosavg 25¢	$2.91	$2.97	+$0.06	52% 4717-4435 (9152)

PollyPepperoni

Luana Santos

Invested

$3,264.87

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$74.31

Record

54%

77-66 (143)

elmcap2

Luana Santos

Invested

$1,748.37

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$11.81

Record

89%

1652-202 (1854)

C63AMGCTR

Yana Santos

Invested

$982.28

Value

$884.11

PnL

-$81.17

Record

73%

868-328 (1196)

roscoffCTR

Yana Santos

Invested

$520

Value

$510

PnL

-$10

Record

55%

163-134 (297)

PLACEYOURBETS123CTR<$100

Yana Santos

Invested

$40.51

Value

$30.09

PnL

-$9.84

Record

58%

57-41 (98)

ameisgoat11<$100

Luana Santos

Invested

$6.6

Value

$7.35

PnL

+$0.75

Record

47%

2296-2570 (4866)

hi774cCTR<$100

Yana Santos

Invested

$2.91

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.06

Record

52%

4717-4435 (9152)

Research grade

NeutralLuana Santos at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Luana Santos

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Luana Santos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYana Santos 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLuana Santos 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yana Santos 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Luana Santos wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.