UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço (Heavyweight, Prelims)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Thomas Petersen (38%) · Thomas Petersen at 62¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8

Thomas Petersen62¢Gabriel Lorenço38¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Thomas Petersen

Consensus Traders

Thomas Petersen 38%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$100.47

Smart Money Entry

63.7¢ → 61.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralThomas Petersen at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thomas Petersen

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thomas Petersen62%

Gabriel Lorenço39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thomas Petersen3 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,543

Combined PnL-$121.3

Gabriel Lorenço5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,133

Combined PnL+$20.83

Thomas Petersen — 38%Gabriel Lorenço — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Thomas Petersen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Thomas Petersen) and the top 1000 (7 on Gabriel Lorenço) disagree here.

whaleThomas Petersen 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrThomas Petersen 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedThomas Petersen 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Gabriel Lorenço 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Thomas Petersenavg 63.9¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$123.4	50% 21519-21799 (43318)
HI hi774cCTR	Gabriel Lorençoavg 37¢	$992.66	$1.0K	+$26.83	46% 5301-6140 (11441)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Thomas Petersenavg 61¢	$126.05	$127.08	+$1.03	55% 3128-2515 (5643)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Gabriel Lorençoavg 40.2¢	$83.8	$80.28	-$3.52	48% 1730-1861 (3591)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Gabriel Lorençoavg 40.2¢	$60.29	$57.76	-$2.53	49% 1790-1872 (3662)
VeryLucky888<$100	Thomas Petersenavg 59.9¢	$47.25	$48.08	+$1.07	58% 47408-34193 (81601)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100	Gabriel Lorençoavg 38.6¢	$31.32	$31.25	-$0.07	50% 549-553 (1102)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Gabriel Lorençoavg 38.5¢	$6.8	$6.85	+$0.13	52% 8958-8128 (17086)

omnibus-076daa

Thomas Petersen

Invested

$2,738.96

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$123.4

Record

50%

21519-21799 (43318)

hi774cCTR

Gabriel Lorenço

Invested

$992.66

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$26.83

Record

46%

5301-6140 (11441)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Thomas Petersen

Invested

$126.05

Value

$127.08

PnL

+$1.03

Record

55%

3128-2515 (5643)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Gabriel Lorenço

Invested

$83.8

Value

$80.28

PnL

-$3.52

Record

48%

1730-1861 (3591)

VenusianCTR<$100

Gabriel Lorenço

Invested

$60.29

Value

$57.76

PnL

-$2.53

Record

49%

1790-1872 (3662)

VeryLucky888<$100

Thomas Petersen

Invested

$47.25

Value

$48.08

PnL

+$1.07

Record

58%

47408-34193 (81601)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100

Gabriel Lorenço

Invested

$31.32

Value

$31.25

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

549-553 (1102)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Gabriel Lorenço

Invested

$6.8

Value

$6.85

PnL

+$0.13

Record

52%

8958-8128 (17086)

Research grade

NeutralThomas Petersen at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thomas Petersen

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Thomas Petersen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Thomas Petersen) and the top 1000 (7 on Gabriel Lorenço) disagree here.

whaleThomas Petersen 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrThomas Petersen 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedThomas Petersen 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Gabriel Lorenço 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thomas Petersen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.