UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Rodrigo Sezinando (Welterweight, Prelims)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Rodrigo Sezinando (75%) · Rodrigo Sezinando at 62¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
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Neutral
Rodrigo Sezinando
4
Rodrigo Sezinando 75%
$2.1K
-$13.51
62¢ → 61.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralRodrigo Sezinando at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Rodrigo Sezinandoavg 62¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$15.67 | 73% 3581-1316 (4897) |
 elmcap2CTR | Theodor Berggrenavg 38¢ | $155.99 | $158.04 | +$2.05 | 89% 1652-202 (1854) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Rodrigo Sezinandoavg 60.3¢ | $4.56 | $4.65 | +$0.09 | 47% 2324-2589 (4913) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100 | Rodrigo Sezinandoavg 61¢ | $2.35 | $2.37 | +$0.02 | 53% 5590-4952 (10542) |
Invested
$1,942.46
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$15.67
Record
73%
3581-1316 (4897)
elmcap2CTRInvested
$155.99
Value
$158.04
PnL
+$2.05
Record
89%
1652-202 (1854)
Invested
$4.56
Value
$4.65
PnL
+$0.09
Record
47%
2324-2589 (4913)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.37
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
5590-4952 (10542)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.