UFC Fight Night: Tainara Lisboa vs. Lucia Szabová (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Lucia Szabová (80%) · Lucia Szabová at 85¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Lucia Szabová
5
Lucia Szabová 80%
$8.0K
$381.56
79.8¢ → 84.5¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralLucia Szabová at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Lucia Szabováavg 79.8¢ | $5.3K | $5.0K | -$140.4 | 58% 41092-29767 (70859) |
JO JohnnyWinsCTR | Tainara Lisboaavg 18.1¢ | $2.2K | $2.7K | +$531.77 | 42% 118-161 (279) |
 Painfulvoid | Lucia Szabováavg 80¢ | $308.81 | $299.16 | -$9.65 | 63% 1754-1020 (2774) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Lucia Szabováavg 84¢ | $1.05 | $0.97 | -$0.08 | 53% 3488-3134 (6622) |
MO mooseborzoii<$100 | Lucia Szabováavg 84¢ | $0.97 | $0.89 | -$0.07 | 50% 1163-1144 (2307) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$5,280.03
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$140.4
Record
58%
41092-29767 (70859)
Invested
$2,208.56
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$531.77
Record
42%
118-161 (279)
PainfulvoidInvested
$308.81
Value
$299.16
PnL
-$9.65
Record
63%
1754-1020 (2774)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.97
PnL
-$0.08
Record
53%
3488-3134 (6622)
Invested
$0.97
Value
$0.89
PnL
-$0.07
Record
50%
1163-1144 (2307)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.