UFC Fight Night: Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith (Welterweight, Main Card)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Jacobe Smith (67%) · Jacobe Smith at 71¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 1

Randy Brown30¢Jacobe Smith70¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jacobe Smith

Consensus Traders

Jacobe Smith 67%

Total Value

$17.5K

Combined PnL

-$43.36

Smart Money Entry

70.4¢ → 70.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralJacobe Smith at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jacobe Smith

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Randy Brown30%

Jacobe Smith71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jacobe Smith4 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares20,630

Combined PnL+$6.7

Randy Brown2 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares10,011

Combined PnL-$50.05

Jacobe Smith — 67%Randy Brown — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Jacobe Smith. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJacobe Smith 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpJacobe Smith 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrJacobe Smith 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJacobe Smith 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jacobe Smith 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marketmesh	Jacobe Smithavg 70¢	$7.7K	$7.7K	+$54.92	58% 96-69 (165)
elmcap2	Jacobe Smithavg 71¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	-$37.45	89% 1652-202 (1854)
8D 8DDDCTR	Randy Brownavg 30¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$50	55% 27-22 (49)
PO PollyPepperoni	Jacobe Smithavg 70¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$10.71	54% 77-66 (143)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Randy Brownavg 30¢	$3.15	$3.1	-$0.05	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Jacobe Smithavg 71¢	$2.45	$2.41	-$0.05	48% 2396-2627 (5023)

marketmesh

Jacobe Smith

Invested

$7,688.49

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$54.92

Record

58%

96-69 (165)

elmcap2

Jacobe Smith

Invested

$5,324.94

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$37.45

Record

89%

1652-202 (1854)

8DDDCTR

Randy Brown

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$50

Record

55%

27-22 (49)

PollyPepperoni

Jacobe Smith

Invested

$1,499.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$10.71

Record

54%

77-66 (143)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Randy Brown

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$0.05

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

ameisgoat11<$100

Jacobe Smith

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.41

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

Research grade

NeutralJacobe Smith at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jacobe Smith

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Jacobe Smith. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJacobe Smith 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpJacobe Smith 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrJacobe Smith 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJacobe Smith 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jacobe Smith 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jacobe Smith wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.